NMFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMFC - NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
$8.59
-0.02 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-1.83%
30d:
-6.73%
90d:
-10.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.47
Based on -37.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.29
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $8.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.80 to $9.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMFC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMFC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.80 -
$9.30
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.80 -
$9.30
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.51
Resistance Level
$9.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.79
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.8%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.41
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.22
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$8.03
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$8.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -78.2%)
$27.63
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: -78.2%)
$8.41
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -78.2%)
$7.15
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$18.46
(+114%)
Analyst growth 95.2%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$16.78
(+95%)
Market implied 95.2%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$5.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$9.26
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 12:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
106691 shares
2025-09-16
Adam B Weinstein
BUY
49750 shares
2025-09-15
Kris Corbett
BUY
750 shares
2025-08-07
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