NTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTB - The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
$52.48
0.71 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
+1.8%
30d:
+2.36%
90d:
+4.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NTB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NTB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.19
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTB is currently trading at $52.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.37 to $52.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$50.37 -
$52.02
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($57.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.37 -
$52.02
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.97
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.34
Resistance Level
$52.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.07
Wall Street Target
$57.33
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.17
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$49.89
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$48.64
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$52.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$190.43
(+263%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$68.76
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$58.44
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.47
Bull Case
$66.27
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$60.24
(+16%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$34.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$56.58
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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