NTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTB - The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
$51.80
-0.23 (-0.44%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.30
Based on 1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.47
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTB is currently trading at $51.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.88 to $51.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$49.88 -
$51.14
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($50.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$49.88 -
$51.14
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.94
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.60
Resistance Level
$52.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.58
Wall Street Target
$50.67
(-2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$53.81
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$54.73
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.7%)
$114.92
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -1.7%)
$49.35
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -1.7%)
$41.95
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.26
Bull Case
$57.77
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.3%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$52.52
(+1%)
Market implied 3.3%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$34.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NTB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTB price and gamma walls.
