NTCT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTCT - Netscout Systems Inc
$27.81
0.21 (0.76%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTCT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NTCT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.52
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTCT is currently trading at $27.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.15 to $27.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 177.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTCT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTCT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTCT is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NTCT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$27.15 -
$27.86
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.42)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.15 -
$27.86
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.21
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.70
Resistance Level
$28.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.15
Wall Street Target
$30.42
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
177.0%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$27.04
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$26.66
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$27.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.2%)
$61.19
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$30.60
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 3.2%)
$26.01
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$61.10
(+120%)
Analyst growth 97.9%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$55.55
(+100%)
Market implied 97.9%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$19.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$28.92
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTCT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alfred Grasso
SELL
5644 shares
2025-08-27
Alfred Grasso
SELL
5356 shares
2025-08-26
Michael Szabados
SELL
4000 shares
2025-08-22
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