TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$23.07
0.74 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
-21.48%
30d:
-18.08%
90d:
-11.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
TOST is up 3.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $25 2026-06-18 with 10,314 OI. Put ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.9/10
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8 traders called TOST this week
89% bullish • 1 bearish
89% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TOST is down 21.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TOST is down 21.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.68
47.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $23.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.26 to $29.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 123.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.26, while resistance sits at $30.36. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.44 (+49.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.26, while resistance sits at $30.36. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.44 (+49.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.26 -
$29.38
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 49.3% below Wall St target ($34.44)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.26 -
$29.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.26
Resistance Level
$30.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.67
Wall Street Target
$34.44
(+49.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
123.0%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.76
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.69
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.82
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→21)
$26.33
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 29.5%)
$80.85
(+250%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 29.5%)
$50.13
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 29.5%)
$42.61
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$50.95
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$46.32
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$15.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$36.12
(+56.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
3664 shares
2026-04-02
Aman Narang
SELL
13463 shares
2026-04-02
Stephen Fredette
SELL
7289 shares
2026-04-02
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