NTRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTRS - Northern Trust Corp
$136.23
1.24 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
-0.66%
30d:
-4.79%
90d:
-2.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
NTRS is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $160 2026-04-17 with 364 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NTRS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NTRS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$210.19
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.51
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTRS is currently trading at $136.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.19 to $143.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.11 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTRS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $133.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.11 (+15.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$136.19 -
$143.46
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
38th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 38th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($157.11)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$136.19 -
$143.46
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.36
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$133.35
Resistance Level
$142.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.39
Wall Street Target
$157.11
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Profit Margin
21.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.33
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$126.60
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$122.04
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$135.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$322.84
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$178.95
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 9.5%)
$152.11
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.74
Bull Case
$187.86
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$170.78
(+25%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$92.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$151.75
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Guy Gibson
SELL
3009 shares
2026-03-05
David W Fox Jr
SELL
3255 shares
2026-03-04
David W Fox Jr
SELL
1450 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced NTRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTRS price and gamma walls.
