NVDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVDA - Nvidia Corp
$191.13
-1.38 (-0.72%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
25d
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76 traders called NVDA this week
86% bullish • 19 bearish
86% bullish • 19 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVDA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVDA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$373.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.67
17.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $191.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.98 to $189.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.1) compared to its historical average (33.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 66.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVDA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.19 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVDA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.19 (+31.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$183.98 -
$189.95
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($253.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$183.98 -
$189.95
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.61
Resistance Level
$193.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.12
Wall Street Target
$253.19
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
62.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.7%
Profit Margin
53.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.1 vs 33.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.76
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$160.47
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$146.51
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→33)
$192.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.1, Growth: 63.3%)
$649.72
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 63.3%)
$576.80
(+200%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 63.3%)
$490.28
(+155%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$394.36
(+105%)
Analyst growth 90.2%, PE expands to 51.5
Base Case
$358.51
(+86%)
Market implied 90.2%, PE stable at 46.8
Bear Case
$128.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 33.0
Stabilization Target:
$252.91
(+31.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 3:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jen Hsun Huang
SELL
75000 shares
2025-10-22
Colette Kress
SELL
27640 shares
2025-10-21
Colette Kress
SELL
20000 shares
2025-10-21
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