NVGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVGS - NAVIGATOR HOLDINGS LTD.
$18.53
-0.11 (-0.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.24
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVGS is currently trading at $18.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.44 to $18.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$17.44 -
$18.45
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.44 -
$18.45
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.66
(3.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.72
Resistance Level
$18.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.50
Wall Street Target
$21.75
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.3%
Profit Margin
17.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.03
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$19.43
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$19.84
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 37.7%)
$103.43
(+455%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 37.7%)
$48.72
(+161%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 37.7%)
$41.41
(+122%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.50
Bull Case
$23.88
(+29%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$21.71
(+17%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$12.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NVGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVGS price and gamma walls.
