NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$148.68
-0.23 (-0.15%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVS is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NVS is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.18
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.15
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $148.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.80 to $146.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$138.80 -
$146.98
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NVS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($140.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$138.80 -
$146.98
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.82
Resistance Level
$152.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.11
Wall Street Target
$140.00
(-5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
25.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.87
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$151.07
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$152.28
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$148.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.5%)
$227.95
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 3.5%)
$164.68
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 3.5%)
$139.98
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.30
Bull Case
$205.64
(+38%)
Analyst growth 26.4%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$186.94
(+26%)
Market implied 26.4%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$100.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NVS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVS price and gamma walls.
