NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$148.18
-1.52 (-1.02%)
ā¼
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
-10.47%
90d:
+6.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: NVS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: NVS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$224.17
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $148.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.18 to $165.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$151.18 -
$165.73
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($150.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$151.18 -
$165.73
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.30
Resistance Level
$155.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.91
Wall Street Target
$150.30
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.36
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$142.60
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$139.89
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15ā16)
$148.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$302.61
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$201.37
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 10.8%)
$171.16
(+16%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.16
Bull Case
$225.12
(+52%)
Analyst growth 40.1%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$204.66
(+38%)
Market implied 40.1%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$99.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$157.07
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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