NWG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWG - NatWest Group plc American Depositary Shares, (each representing two (2) Ordinary Shares)
$14.98
-0.14 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-5.37%
30d:
-10.03%
90d:
-6.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NWG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NWG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.69
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.95
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWG is currently trading at $14.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.23 to $16.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.24 (+28.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.24 (+28.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.23 -
$16.48
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.5% below Wall St target ($19.24)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.23 -
$16.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.73
Resistance Level
$15.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.99
Wall Street Target
$19.24
(+28.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.6%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.14
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$13.35
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$12.60
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$14.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.3%)
$65.17
(+335%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$20.63
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 11.3%)
$17.54
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$18.87
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$17.15
(+15%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$10.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$17.80
(+18.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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