NXPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$226.14
-7.36 (-3.15%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$367.56
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$228.23
0.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $226.14, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.05 to $239.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $226.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $264.82 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $226.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $264.82 (+13.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$224.05 -
$239.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($264.82)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with -2.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$224.05 -
$239.45
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$226.39
Resistance Level
$242.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.92
Wall Street Target
$264.83
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$236.77
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$240.08
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$243.44
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$233.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.1%)
$494.83
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.1%)
$375.41
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$319.10
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.10
Bull Case
$430.00
(+84%)
Analyst growth 70.4%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$390.91
(+67%)
Market implied 70.4%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$156.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Andrew Micallef
SELL
1000 shares
2025-09-15
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-26
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