ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$189.75
1.41 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
+1.09%
30d:
-6.55%
90d:
+18.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
ODFL is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $185 2026-05-15 with 30 OI. Put ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$261.79
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$162.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $189.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.17 to $202.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.3) is in line with its historical norms (31.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$183.17 -
$202.55
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($199.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$183.17 -
$202.55
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.91
Resistance Level
$194.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.29
Wall Street Target
$199.25
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.3 vs 31.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.21
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$186.09
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$184.97
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→32)
$188.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.3, Growth: 19.7%)
$322.79
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$231.07
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.7%)
$196.41
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.84
Bull Case
$251.59
(+34%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$228.71
(+22%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$125.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.3 to 31.9
Stabilization Target:
$192.00
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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Advanced ODFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
