ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$173.20
0.61 (0.35%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.85
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $173.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $161.63 to $175.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.0) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $168.00, while resistance sits at $181.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $168.00, while resistance sits at $181.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$161.63 -
$175.76
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($167.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with -4.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$161.63 -
$175.76
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.00
Resistance Level
$181.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.96
Wall Street Target
$167.79
(-2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
34.0 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.94
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$183.46
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$189.14
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$172.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$202.06
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$132.69
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$112.78
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.97
Bull Case
$196.22
(+14%)
Analyst growth 2.3%, PE expands to 38.6
Base Case
$178.38
(+3%)
Market implied 2.3%, PE stable at 35.1
Bear Case
$118.62
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen
SELL
2025-10-06
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-04
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
