SAIA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAIA - Saia, Inc.
$416.69
-1.46 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
-3.92%
30d:
-11.56%
90d:
+17.42%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAIA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAIA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$707.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$439.33
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAIA is currently trading at $416.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $430.90 to $477.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.7) is in line with its historical norms (30.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $455.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAIA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $455.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAIA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$430.90 -
$477.72
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($457.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$430.90 -
$477.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$31.21
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$455.03
Resistance Level
$494.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.67
Wall Street Target
$457.60
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.7 vs 30.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$409.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$402.64
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$395.80
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→30)
$416.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.7, Growth: 27.3%)
$858.66
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.3%)
$652.29
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 27.3%)
$554.44
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.51
Bull Case
$702.94
(+69%)
Analyst growth 52.8%, PE expands to 48.4
Base Case
$639.04
(+53%)
Market implied 52.8%, PE stable at 44.0
Bear Case
$284.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.7 to 30.2
Stabilization Target:
$438.91
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAIA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Frederick J Holzgrefe III
SELL
4775 shares
2026-02-13
Kelly W Benton
SELL
800 shares
2026-02-13
Matthew J Batteh
SELL
916 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced SAIA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAIA price and gamma walls.
