SAIA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAIA - Saia, Inc.
$460.38
1.09 (0.24%)
▲
5d:
+2.35%
30d:
+8.95%
90d:
+19.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
SAIA is up 3.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $440 2026-06-18 with 53 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SAIA is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SAIA is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$688.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$427.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAIA is currently trading at $460.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $413.15 to $451.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.5) is in line with its historical norms (29.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $462.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $462.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$413.15 -
$451.29
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SAIA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($442.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$413.15 -
$451.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$28.99
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$403.34
Resistance Level
$462.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.55
Wall Street Target
$442.20
(-3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
32.6 vs 29.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$474.19
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$488.42
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$503.07
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$460.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: 26.7%)
$937.13
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 26.7%)
$635.43
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 26.7%)
$540.11
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.51
Bull Case
$751.42
(+63%)
Analyst growth 48.7%, PE expands to 53.1
Base Case
$683.11
(+48%)
Market implied 48.7%, PE stable at 48.3
Bear Case
$312.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAIA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Frederick J Holzgrefe III
SELL
4775 shares
2026-02-13
Kelly W Benton
SELL
800 shares
2026-02-13
Matthew J Batteh
SELL
916 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced SAIA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAIA price and gamma walls.
