Is OMDA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, OMDA is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of OMDA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for OMDA to be between $12.82 and $15.57. The current price is $16.56.

What is the analyst price target for OMDA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for OMDA is $22.92. This implies a potential upside of 38.4% from current levels.

OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-HEALTH SERVICES

$16.56

-0.02 (-0.12%) ▼

5d: +11.74%

30d: +23.86%

90d: +46.42%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your OMDA Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 07, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

OMDA is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $20 2026-07-17 with 10,009 OI. Call ratio: 99% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OMDA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$23.20

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$14.40

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $16.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.82 to $15.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.8) compared to its historical average (78.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $16.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: OMDA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.92 (+38.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $12.82 - $15.57

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($22.92)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $12.82 - $15.57

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $14.30

Resistance Level $16.94

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 34.75

Wall Street Target $22.92 (+38.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 42.0%

Profit Margin -2.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -23.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 34.8 vs 78.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -23.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $14.90 (-10%)

2-Year Target $13.41 (-19%)

3-Year Target $12.07 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 35→79) $27.37 (+65%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 34.8, Growth: 45.9%) $51.43 (+211%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 45.9%) $32.66 (+97%)

Bear: (PE: 18.8, Growth: 45.9%) $27.76 (+68%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.8 to 78.8

Stabilization Target: $37.55 (+126.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +126.7%

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Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Wei-Li Shao SELL 2829 shares 2026-04-08

Steven L Cook SELL 1884 shares 2026-03-13

Sean P Duffy SELL 4063 shares 2026-03-09

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Advanced OMDA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OMDA price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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