OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$22.39
-0.23 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
+18.47%
30d:
+25.86%
90d:
+77.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: OMDA is 12.4% above its trading range ($19.92). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: OMDA is 12.4% above its trading range ($19.92). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $22.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.72 to $19.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 47.0) compared to its historical average (63.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.96, while resistance sits at $23.11.
Market Sentiment: OMDA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.96, while resistance sits at $23.11.
Market Sentiment: OMDA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.72 -
$19.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
OMDA is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.72 -
$19.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.96
Resistance Level
$23.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.99
Wall Street Target
$22.92
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.0 vs 63.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.26
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.34
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$16.60
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→63)
$22.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.0, Growth: 45.9%)
$69.53
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.9%)
$32.23
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.9%)
$27.40
(+22%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.0 to 63.4
Stabilization Target:
$30.21
(+34.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wei-Li Shao
SELL
2829 shares
2026-04-08
Steven L Cook
SELL
1884 shares
2026-03-13
Sean P Duffy
SELL
4063 shares
2026-03-09
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Advanced OMDA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OMDA price and gamma walls.