ONB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$23.29
-0.30 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-4.16%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-5.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ONB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ONB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.44
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $23.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.23 to $24.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.91 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.91 (+19.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$23.23 -
$24.19
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.91)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.23 -
$24.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.14
Resistance Level
$24.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.03
Wall Street Target
$27.91
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$22.73
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$22.46
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$23.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$87.36
(+275%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 10.9%)
$31.78
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$27.01
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$38.80
(+67%)
Analyst growth 49.5%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$35.27
(+51%)
Market implied 49.5%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$16.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$24.07
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 7:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nicholas J Chulos
SELL
30000 shares
2026-02-03
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