ONB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$26.00
-0.23 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
+9.01%
90d:
+16.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.82
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $26.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.89 to $25.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ONB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ONB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.89 -
$25.58
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.89 -
$25.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.24
Resistance Level
$24.61
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.95
Wall Street Target
$28.20
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.60
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$27.21
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$27.84
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.82
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$87.34
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 11.3%)
$35.88
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 11.3%)
$30.50
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$43.22
(+66%)
Analyst growth 49.8%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$39.29
(+51%)
Market implied 49.8%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$17.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nicholas J Chulos
SELL
30000 shares
2026-02-03
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