OXLC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OXLC - Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
$11.39
-0.73 (-6.02%)
▼
5d:
-21.72%
30d:
-22.2%
90d:
-25.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Jan 26, 2026
0d
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1 traders called OXLC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: OXLC is down 21.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: OXLC is down 21.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.58
73.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OXLC is currently trading at $11.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.57 to $15.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.6) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 31.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OXLC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OXLC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.57 -
$15.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 40.5% below Wall St target ($16.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.57 -
$15.23
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.70
Resistance Level
$14.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.56
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+40.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.9%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-31.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.6 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-31.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.30
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→8)
$26.28
(+131%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 36.5%)
$252.40
(+2116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.6, Growth: 36.5%)
$28.97
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.2, Growth: 36.5%)
$24.62
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$26.66
(+134%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$24.24
(+113%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$8.24
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.6 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$36.04
(+216.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+216.5%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OXLC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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