PACS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PACS - PACS Group, Inc.
$33.76
-0.42 (-1.23%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PACS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PACS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.50
20.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PACS is currently trading at $33.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.12 to $40.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PACS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PACS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$36.12 -
$40.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.12 -
$40.63
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.11
Resistance Level
$39.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.99
Wall Street Target
$34.67
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.1%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.87
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$33.57
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$33.27
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$34.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 31.9%)
$97.33
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 31.9%)
$78.51
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 31.9%)
$66.74
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.61
Bull Case
$31.75
(-7%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$28.86
(-16%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$9.81
(-71%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$35.15
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PACS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PACS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PACS price and gamma walls.
