PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$12.81
0.17 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
+11.29%
30d:
+2.81%
90d:
-19.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.31
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.34
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $12.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.34 to $12.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.29 (+36.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.29 (+36.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$11.34 -
$12.97
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($17.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.34 -
$12.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.05
Resistance Level
$12.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.19
Wall Street Target
$17.29
(+36.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.6%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.69
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$10.82
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$10.00
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$12.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$63.14
(+400%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 17.1%)
$20.30
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 17.1%)
$17.26
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$24.64
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$22.40
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$7.62
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.01
(+26.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 11:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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