PAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAX - Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares
$14.61
-0.06 (-0.41%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PAX is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PAX is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.67
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.05
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAX is currently trading at $14.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.67 to $17.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4534.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.43 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.43 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$15.67 -
$17.36
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.43)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.67 -
$17.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.18
Resistance Level
$17.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.75
Wall Street Target
$17.43
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4534.5%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.16
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$13.66
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$13.18
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$14.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 23.1%)
$62.62
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 23.1%)
$27.39
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 23.1%)
$23.28
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.68
Bull Case
$33.99
(+133%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$30.90
(+112%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$10.51
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$16.39
(+11.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.7%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAX price and gamma walls.
