PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$134.75
0.41 (0.31%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PAYC is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PAYC is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.63
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $134.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.64 to $160.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.29 (+49.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.29 (+49.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$146.64 -
$160.84
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.8% below Wall St target ($201.29)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$146.64 -
$160.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.13
Resistance Level
$153.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.37
Wall Street Target
$201.29
(+49.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.6%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.82
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$119.72
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$113.01
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$134.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$282.25
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$169.28
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$143.88
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.04
Bull Case
$191.92
(+42%)
Analyst growth 24.9%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$174.47
(+30%)
Market implied 24.9%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$94.96
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$159.71
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-25
Bradley Scott Smith
SELL
1500 shares
2025-09-12
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
