PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$120.97
3.91 (3.34%)
▲
5d:
-4.44%
30d:
-3.86%
90d:
-24.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PAYC is down 5.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 905 OI. Call ratio: 72% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAYC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAYC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.83
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.74
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $120.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.89 to $132.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $116.31, while resistance sits at $128.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.94 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $116.31, while resistance sits at $128.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.94 (+30.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$119.89 -
$132.12
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.7% below Wall St target ($152.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$119.89 -
$132.12
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.31
Resistance Level
$128.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.25
Wall Street Target
$152.94
(+30.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 13.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.29
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$96.51
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$87.63
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→14)
$117.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$345.59
(+195%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$158.09
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$134.38
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.08
Bull Case
$194.13
(+53%)
Analyst growth 41.4%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$176.48
(+39%)
Market implied 41.4%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$84.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$156.51
(+33.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
