PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$20.81
0.04 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+7.99%
30d:
+25.14%
90d:
+80.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.95
Based on -7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.80
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $20.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.68 to $19.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.74. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $14.74. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$16.68 -
$19.75
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 29.1% above Wall St target ($14.74)
- BEARISH: Market expects 9.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.68 -
$19.75
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.53
Resistance Level
$21.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.31
Wall Street Target
$14.74
(-29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Profit Margin
15.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 6.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.70
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$24.77
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$27.02
(+30%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -18.0%)
$40.79
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -18.0%)
$15.17
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -18.0%)
$11.68
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$16.61
(-14%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$15.10
(-22%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$8.86
(-54%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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