PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$15.34
-0.18 (-1.16%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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2 traders called PBR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PBR is 8.9% above fair value ($14.09). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PBR is 8.9% above fair value ($14.09). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.90
Based on -7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.52
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $15.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.45 to $14.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (5.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.57, while resistance sits at $15.94.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.57, while resistance sits at $15.94.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$11.45 -
$14.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
PBR is technically overbought (RSI 84). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.74)
- BEARISH: Market expects 5.8% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.45 -
$14.09
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.57
Resistance Level
$15.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.20
Wall Street Target
$14.74
(-5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Profit Margin
15.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.8% premium
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 5.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.42
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$17.37
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$18.38
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.42
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -18.0%)
$40.70
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: -18.0%)
$11.31
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: -18.0%)
$9.49
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$16.61
(+8%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$15.10
(-2%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$8.86
(-42%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PBR price and gamma walls.
