PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$112.63
-0.12 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-1.48%
30d:
-10.67%
90d:
+0.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PCAR is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $113.6 2026-05-15 with 290 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.28
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.88
19.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $112.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.97 to $125.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.08 (+10.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.08 (+10.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$114.97 -
$125.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PCAR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($125.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.97 -
$125.09
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.36
Resistance Level
$117.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.72
Wall Street Target
$125.08
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.9%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.68
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$102.83
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$98.20
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$112.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$259.20
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 19.7%)
$193.46
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 19.7%)
$164.44
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.51
Bull Case
$182.99
(+60%)
Analyst growth 49.5%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$166.35
(+46%)
Market implied 49.5%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$75.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$129.48
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brice J Poplawski
SELL
2200 shares
2026-02-12
R Preston Feight
SELL
9258 shares
2026-02-04
C Michael Dozier
SELL
79076 shares
2026-02-03
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Advanced PCAR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.
