PEGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEGA - Pegasystems Inc
$43.69
-0.93 (-2.08%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PEGA is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PEGA is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.75
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.17
3.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $43.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.86 to $61.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.6) compared to its historical average (25.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 337.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.91 (+69.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.91 (+69.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$49.86 -
$61.29
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PEGA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.2% below Wall St target ($73.91)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$49.86 -
$61.29
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.45
Resistance Level
$53.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.62
Wall Street Target
$73.91
(+69.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
337.8%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 25.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.24
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$37.06
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$34.13
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→25)
$43.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$60.84
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$53.52
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 7.0%)
$45.49
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
Bull Case
$79.02
(+81%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$71.83
(+64%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$33.56
(-23%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 25.1
Stabilization Target:
$55.90
(+27.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alan Trefler
SELL
45000 shares
2025-10-21
Alan Trefler
SELL
45000 shares
2025-09-16
Efstathios A Kouninis
SELL
2544 shares
2025-09-15
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Advanced PEGA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PEGA price and gamma walls.
