PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$164.62
-0.21 (-0.13%)
▼
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
-10.45%
90d:
+1.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
PM is down 7.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $195 2026-04-17 with 1,226 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$246.28
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.92
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $164.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $164.28 to $182.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $161.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.84 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $161.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.84 (+18.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$164.28 -
$182.17
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($194.84)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$164.28 -
$182.17
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$161.82
Resistance Level
$171.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.92
Wall Street Target
$194.84
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Profit Margin
27.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 19.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.05
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$155.41
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$150.90
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$165.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.9%)
$265.52
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$212.87
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 8.9%)
$180.94
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.26
Bull Case
$227.34
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$206.67
(+27%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$110.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$180.30
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 2:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Emmanuel Babeau
SELL
33800 shares
2026-02-19
Jacek Olczak
SELL
80000 shares
2026-02-19
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