PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$179.44
1.55 (0.87%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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2 traders called PM this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$229.11
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$142.26
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $179.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.32 to $174.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $181.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $181.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$159.32 -
$174.00
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
PM is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($180.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$159.32 -
$174.00
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.13
Resistance Level
$181.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.36
Wall Street Target
$180.38
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.40
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$189.09
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$194.95
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$177.96
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.3%)
$249.53
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 10.3%)
$239.03
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 10.3%)
$203.18
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.00
Bull Case
$233.71
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$212.46
(+18%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$121.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2025-09-29
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2025-09-05
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