POOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POOL - Pool Corporation
$252.95
-0.65 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-4.35%
30d:
+10.12%
90d:
-5.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
POOL is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $270 2026-03-20 with 4 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: POOL shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.7% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: POOL shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.7% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$322.41
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$200.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POOL is currently trading at $252.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.85 to $265.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (21.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $250.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.36 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $250.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.36 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$237.85 -
$265.59
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($307.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$237.85 -
$265.59
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.72
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$250.06
Resistance Level
$269.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.83
Wall Street Target
$307.36
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 21.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$254.72
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$256.50
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$258.30
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$253.16
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.8%)
$314.27
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$307.71
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$261.56
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.98
Bull Case
$294.32
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$267.57
(+6%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$172.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 8:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:03 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is POOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced POOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's POOL price and gamma walls.
