POST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POST - POST HOLDINGS, INC.
$102.31
3.53 (3.57%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: POST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: POST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.88
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.56
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POST is currently trading at $102.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.58 to $100.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: POST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.38 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: POST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.38 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$97.58 -
$100.17
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($124.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.58 -
$100.17
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.78
(3.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.11
Resistance Level
$102.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.11
Wall Street Target
$124.38
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.1%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$100.07
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$98.97
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$102.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.5%)
$321.34
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 19.5%)
$174.55
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 19.5%)
$148.37
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.51
Bull Case
$164.88
(+61%)
Analyst growth 53.3%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$149.90
(+47%)
Market implied 53.3%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$66.50
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.5
Stabilization Target:
$105.57
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is POST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William P Stiritz
BUY
36000 shares
2025-08-19
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Advanced POST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's POST price and gamma walls.
