PRGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PRGS - Progress Software Corp (DE)
$40.92
1.21 (3.05%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PRGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PRGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.04
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.69
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PRGS is currently trading at $40.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.66 to $43.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2135.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.54, while resistance sits at $47.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: PRGS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.50 (+60.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.54, while resistance sits at $47.25. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: PRGS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.50 (+60.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$40.66 -
$43.24
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.1% below Wall St target ($65.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.66 -
$43.24
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.78
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.54
Resistance Level
$47.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.87
Wall Street Target
$65.50
(+60.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2135.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.82
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$38.74
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$37.69
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$41.16
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$138.50
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 1.4%)
$42.66
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 1.4%)
$36.26
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$91.10
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$82.82
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$28.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$44.68
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PRGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ian Pitt
SELL
409 shares
2025-10-06
Anthony Folger
SELL
5474 shares
2025-10-03
Yufan Stephanie Wang
SELL
1428 shares
2025-10-03
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Advanced PRGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PRGS price and gamma walls.
