PSMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSMT - Pricesmart Inc
$142.21
-2.85 (-1.96%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$287.57
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$178.56
20.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSMT is currently trading at $142.21, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.25 to $142.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSMT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $137.02, while resistance sits at $148.03.
Market Sentiment: PSMT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSMT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $137.02, while resistance sits at $148.03.
Market Sentiment: PSMT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$126.25 -
$142.57
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$126.25 -
$142.57
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.95
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.02
Resistance Level
$148.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.68
Wall Street Target
$143.00
(-1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$141.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$140.33
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$144.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.3%)
$286.86
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 24.3%)
$278.92
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 24.3%)
$237.08
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.90
Bull Case
$213.26
(+50%)
Analyst growth 36.5%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$193.87
(+36%)
Market implied 36.5%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$96.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$149.86
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 6:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francisco Velasco
SELL
550 shares
2025-10-06
Michael Mccleary
SELL
9754 shares
2025-09-09
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Advanced PSMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PSMT price and gamma walls.
