PUBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PUBM - PubMatic, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$8.27
0.06 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
-0.48%
30d:
-5.27%
90d:
-6.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PUBM is down 8.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-04-17 with 3,890 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PUBM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PUBM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.15
41.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PUBM is currently trading at $8.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.54 to $8.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (43.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PUBM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.61 (+40.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PUBM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.61 (+40.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$7.54 -
$8.67
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
55th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 55th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.4% below Wall St target ($11.61)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.54 -
$8.67
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.93
(11.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.73
Resistance Level
$8.42
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.67
Wall Street Target
$11.61
(+40.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
-5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 43.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.03
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→43)
$14.77
(+79%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 85.7%)
$32.49
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 85.7%)
$27.91
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 85.7%)
$23.72
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 43.3
Stabilization Target:
$20.26
(+145.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+145.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PUBM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rajeev K Goel
SELL
44000 shares
2026-03-09
Lisa Gimbel
SELL
1277 shares
2026-02-17
Rajeev K Goel
SELL
44000 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced PUBM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PUBM price and gamma walls.
