QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$15.56
0.00 (0.03%)
ā²
5d:
-5.15%
30d:
-19.28%
90d:
-26.94%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.14
Based on -4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $15.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.08 to $18.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.61 (+109.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.61 (+109.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.08 -
$18.86
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 109.7% below Wall St target ($32.61)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.08 -
$18.86
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.30
Resistance Level
$17.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.38
Wall Street Target
$32.61
(+109.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Profit Margin
35.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.18
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$14.46
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0ā0)
$15.32
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -12.5%)
$669.92
(+4208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: -12.5%)
$11.34
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: -12.5%)
$9.64
(-38%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.06
Bull Case
$35.35
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.5
Base Case
$32.14
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.3
Bear Case
$10.93
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$16.48
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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