QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.36
-0.41 (-3.21%)
ā¼
5d:
-8.58%
30d:
-15.11%
90d:
-38.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
Get Alerted When QFIN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
š HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: QFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.50
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.21
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $12.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.30 to $14.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.10 (+95.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.10 (+95.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.30 -
$14.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 95.0% below Wall St target ($24.10)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.6%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.30 -
$14.91
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.40
Resistance Level
$14.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.36
Wall Street Target
$24.10
(+95.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.9%
Profit Margin
31.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$11.77
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$11.49
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0ā0)
$12.89
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$1352.19
(+10840%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$21.57
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 20.4%)
$18.33
(+48%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 1.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.14
Bull Case
$29.24
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.1
Base Case
$26.58
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 1.9
Bear Case
$9.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.87
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM
š„ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Credit Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Credit Services by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
V
Visa Inc. Class A |
STRONG BUY
41 analysts |
$400 | 59 HOLD |
|
MA
Mastercard Inc |
STRONG BUY
42 analysts |
$663 | 61 BUY |
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc |
HOLD
47 analysts |
$50 | 60 BUY |
|
AXP
American Express Company |
HOLD
30 analysts |
$375 | 59 HOLD |
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$82 | 54 HOLD |
