RCL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RCL - Royal Caribbean Group
$324.65
-21.33 (-6.17%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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2 traders called RCL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RCL trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: RCL trades at premium valuation expecting 7.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$420.48
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$261.08
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RCL is currently trading at $324.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $276.26 to $308.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.6) compared to its historical average (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RCL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $264.39, while resistance sits at $351.57. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: RCL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RCL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $264.39, while resistance sits at $351.57. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: RCL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$276.26 -
$308.07
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RCL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($332.21)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$276.26 -
$308.07
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.39
Resistance Level
$351.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.59
Wall Street Target
$332.21
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.3%
Profit Margin
23.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 15.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$371.24
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$398.34
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$427.42
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$346.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.9%)
$566.35
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 12.9%)
$497.41
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$403.81
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.86
Bull Case
$379.97
(+10%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$345.43
(0%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$197.59
(-43%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RCL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vagn O Sorensen
SELL
10300 shares
2025-08-19
Richard D Fain
SELL
16000 shares
2025-08-06
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-04
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