RJF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RJF - Raymond James Financial, Inc.
$140.95
-0.37 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-3.09%
30d:
-7.92%
90d:
-14.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
RJF is down 7.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $180 2026-05-15 with 288 OI. Call ratio: 79% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RJF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RJF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.83
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$158.23
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RJF is currently trading at $140.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.46 to $156.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RJF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RJF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$144.46 -
$156.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($184.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$144.46 -
$156.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.51
Resistance Level
$147.54
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.29
Wall Street Target
$184.83
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 12.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.41
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$125.94
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$118.88
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$140.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$450.54
(+219%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$206.96
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 13.6%)
$175.91
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.22
Bull Case
$212.59
(+46%)
Analyst growth 34.4%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$193.26
(+33%)
Market implied 34.4%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$97.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$167.56
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RJF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Paul C Reilly
SELL
130687 shares
2025-12-15
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Advanced RJF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RJF price and gamma walls.
