RL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RL - Ralph Lauren Corporation
$353.41
-1.68 (-0.47%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$572.19
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$355.29
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RL is currently trading at $353.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $356.54 to $366.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $349.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $391.80 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $349.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $391.80 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$356.54 -
$366.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($391.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$356.54 -
$366.23
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$18.69
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$349.58
Resistance Level
$377.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.72
Wall Street Target
$391.80
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.7%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 24.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$336.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$320.30
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$304.92
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$353.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$504.31
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$468.63
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$398.33
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.52
Bull Case
$488.48
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 28.7
Base Case
$444.08
(+26%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$240.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$409.31
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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Advanced RL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RL price and gamma walls.
