SAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAP - SAP SE
$201.04
0.83 (0.41%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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1 traders called SAP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAP is down 13.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAP is down 13.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$386.09
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$239.73
16.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAP is currently trading at $201.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $224.48 to $248.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.5) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $195.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $336.00 (+67.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $195.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $336.00 (+67.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$224.48 -
$248.69
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.8% below Wall St target ($336.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$224.48 -
$248.69
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$195.12
Resistance Level
$239.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.54
Wall Street Target
$336.00
(+67.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.9%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$189.00
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$178.41
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$168.42
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$200.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 21.7%)
$360.62
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$341.56
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$290.33
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.16
Bull Case
$304.42
(+52%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$276.75
(+38%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$159.08
(-21%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.5 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$238.10
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAP price and gamma walls.
