SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$23.64
-0.06 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
+1.37%
30d:
+2.65%
90d:
+8.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.07
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.09
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $23.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.01 to $23.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$23.01 -
$23.53
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.01 -
$23.53
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.83
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.90
Resistance Level
$23.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$23.40
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
30.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 8.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.94
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$26.31
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$27.76
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$48.89
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$22.15
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -2.1%)
$18.83
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.42
Bull Case
$24.83
(+5%)
Analyst growth -3.3%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$22.57
(-5%)
Market implied -3.3%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$15.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 4:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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