SCVL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCVL - Shoe Carnival Inc
$15.88
0.29 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
-11.14%
30d:
-20.8%
90d:
-9.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SCVL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SCVL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.60
Based on -9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCVL is currently trading at $15.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.73 to $20.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.04, while resistance sits at $18.43.
Market Sentiment: SCVL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+38.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.04, while resistance sits at $18.43.
Market Sentiment: SCVL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+38.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.73 -
$20.03
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.5% below Wall St target ($22.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.73 -
$20.03
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.32
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.04
Resistance Level
$18.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.73
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+38.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.9%
Profit Margin
4.6%
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$15.88
(0%)
3-Year Target
$15.88
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -22.1%)
$24.11
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -22.1%)
$11.58
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -22.1%)
$9.84
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$14.18
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.1%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$12.89
(-28%)
Market implied -27.1%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$12.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCVL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrea R Guthrie
SELL
2477 shares
2025-10-15
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