SCVL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCVL - Shoe Carnival Inc
$19.06
0.63 (3.42%)
▲
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
+9.23%
90d:
+2.42%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SCVL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SCVL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.04
Based on -6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCVL is currently trading at $19.06, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.81 to $19.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.13, while resistance sits at $20.18. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCVL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.13, while resistance sits at $20.18. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$17.81 -
$19.32
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.6% growth with -3.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.81 -
$19.32
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.95
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.13
Resistance Level
$20.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.19
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(-0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.3%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 9.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.08
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$23.31
(+22%)
3-Year Target
$25.79
(+35%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -16.5%)
$25.41
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: -16.5%)
$13.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: -16.5%)
$10.26
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$15.15
(-21%)
Analyst growth -25.6%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$13.77
(-28%)
Market implied -25.6%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$12.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCVL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrea R Guthrie
SELL
2477 shares
2025-10-15
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