SEM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SEM - SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP
$16.29
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+0.18%
90d:
+8.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.51
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SEM is currently trading at $16.29, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.41 to $16.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$15.41 -
$16.53
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with 7.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.41 -
$16.53
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.25
Resistance Level
$16.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.05
Wall Street Target
$16.63
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.8%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.47
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.65
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.83
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$38.77
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 8.7%)
$20.90
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$17.77
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$20.83
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.6%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$18.94
(+16%)
Market implied 16.6%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$11.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SEM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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