SFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
$23.90
0.17 (0.72%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
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1 traders called SFD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.31
Based on -8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFD is currently trading at $23.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.15 to $23.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.36 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $23.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.36 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$22.15 -
$23.23
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($29.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with 12.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.15 -
$23.23
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.73
Resistance Level
$23.92
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.99
Wall Street Target
$29.36
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.16
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$24.59
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$25.03
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -20.6%)
$52.66
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: -20.6%)
$23.58
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: -20.6%)
$20.05
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.22
Bull Case
$27.85
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$25.31
(+6%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$16.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Donovan Owens
BUY
12000 shares
2025-09-08
Doug Sutton
BUY
3920 shares
2025-09-08
Hank Shenghua He
BUY
10000 shares
2025-09-08
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