SFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
$27.02
0.33 (1.24%)
▲
5d:
+15.08%
30d:
+8.6%
90d:
+20.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.89
Based on 0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.08
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFD is currently trading at $27.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.49 to $25.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.93 (+15.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.93 (+15.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$23.49 -
$25.45
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above fair value)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.93)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.49 -
$25.45
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.87
Resistance Level
$26.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.26
Wall Street Target
$30.93
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.5%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.12
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$27.55
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$27.99
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -3.3%)
$52.64
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -3.3%)
$24.12
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -3.3%)
$20.50
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.22
Bull Case
$27.57
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$25.06
(+7%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$15.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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