SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$19.45
0.49 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+1.09%
30d:
-4.47%
90d:
+2.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.79
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.01
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $19.45, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.77 to $20.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$18.77 -
$20.35
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.77 -
$20.35
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.25
Resistance Level
$19.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.79
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$18.47
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$19.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.6%)
$55.98
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 5.6%)
$22.92
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 5.6%)
$19.49
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$20.40
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Steven A Cosse
BUY
8603 shares
2025-10-30
David W Garner
BUY
3000 shares
2025-10-22
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