SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$20.33
0.01 (0.05%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFNC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SFNC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.32
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $20.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.80 to $20.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $19.02, while resistance sits at $21.67.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $19.02, while resistance sits at $21.67.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.80 -
$20.01
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SFNC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.80 -
$20.01
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.02
Resistance Level
$21.67
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.56
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.14
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.96
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$19.78
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$20.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.6%)
$55.85
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 5.6%)
$23.95
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 5.6%)
$20.36
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$20.83
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David W Garner
BUY
3000 shares
2025-10-22
Russell William Teubner
BUY
2000 shares
2025-08-07
Russell William Teubner
BUY
9200 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced SFNC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SFNC price and gamma walls.
