SGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SGI - Somnigroup International Inc.
$73.92
4.55 (6.56%)
▲
5d:
-2.01%
30d:
-15.44%
90d:
-18.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.41
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.71
38.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SGI is currently trading at $73.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.56 to $86.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 62.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.30, while resistance sits at $77.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.38 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.30, while resistance sits at $77.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SGI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.38 (+39.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$73.56 -
$86.33
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.8% below Wall St target ($103.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$73.56 -
$86.33
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.30
Resistance Level
$77.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.06
Wall Street Target
$103.38
(+39.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.4%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 24.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.68
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$60.14
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$54.25
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→25)
$73.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 24.6%)
$176.76
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 24.6%)
$142.85
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 24.6%)
$121.43
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$158.11
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$143.74
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.1
Bear Case
$48.87
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 24.6
Stabilization Target:
$100.67
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-02-09
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SELL
2026-01-22
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SELL
2026-01-12
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