PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$85.03
-0.24 (-0.28%)
▼
5d:
-8.25%
30d:
-6.21%
90d:
-24.75%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$198.67
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$123.36
31.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $85.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.41 to $91.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.00 (+40.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.00 (+40.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.41 -
$91.85
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.0% below Wall St target ($119.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.41 -
$91.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.43
Resistance Level
$95.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.52
Wall Street Target
$119.00
(+40.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.65
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$72.75
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$67.30
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$85.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.4%)
$234.19
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 22.4%)
$156.10
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 22.4%)
$132.69
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$141.23
(+66%)
Analyst growth 50.6%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$128.39
(+51%)
Market implied 50.6%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$57.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$107.77
(+26.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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