PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$91.19
-2.95 (-3.13%)
▼
5d:
-4.18%
30d:
-11.38%
90d:
-36.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PATK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PATK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$210.42
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.65
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $91.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.74 to $107.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.96, while resistance sits at $98.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.50 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $83.96, while resistance sits at $98.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.50 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$90.74 -
$107.20
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($119.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.74 -
$107.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.96
Resistance Level
$98.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.32
Wall Street Target
$119.50
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.44
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$78.19
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$72.41
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$91.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 22.1%)
$239.16
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$166.02
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 22.1%)
$141.12
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$158.45
(+74%)
Analyst growth 53.0%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$144.04
(+58%)
Market implied 53.0%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$64.02
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$114.87
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
4
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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