SIGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGA - SIGA Technologies Inc.
$5.26
-0.04 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
+5.41%
30d:
-18.7%
90d:
-16.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SIGA is down 6.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $7 2026-06-18 with 48 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SIGA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 1802% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SIGA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 1802% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.47
29.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGA is currently trading at $5.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.13 to $6.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.6) compared to its historical average (4.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1802.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.81, while resistance sits at $5.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+233.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.81, while resistance sits at $5.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+233.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$5.13 -
$6.57
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 233.3% below Wall St target ($17.53)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.13 -
$6.57
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.81
Resistance Level
$5.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.58
Wall Street Target
$17.53
(+233.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-95.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1802.5%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.6 vs 4.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.00
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.76
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$4.52
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$5.31
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1533.3%)
$110.88
(+2008%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.6, Growth: 1533.3%)
$17.75
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.0, Growth: 1533.3%)
$15.09
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.32
Bull Case
$10.87
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$9.88
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$3.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.6 to 4.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.17
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SIGA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIGA price and gamma walls.
