SIGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGA - SIGA Technologies Inc.
$6.70
-0.11 (-1.62%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SIGA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SIGA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.67
12.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGA is currently trading at $6.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.33 to $6.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.5) is in line with its historical norms (4.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+157.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIGA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+157.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$6.33 -
$6.77
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 157.4% below Wall St target ($17.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.33 -
$6.77
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.93
(13.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.41
Resistance Level
$6.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.51
Wall Street Target
$17.53
(+157.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-73.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1802.5%
Profit Margin
43.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 4.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.96
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$7.11
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$7.27
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$6.77
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 297.4%)
$113.65
(+1569%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 297.4%)
$22.98
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 297.4%)
$19.54
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$10.76
(+61%)
Analyst growth 46.6%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$9.78
(+46%)
Market implied 46.6%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$4.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SIGA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIGA price and gamma walls.
