SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$104.86
1.38 (1.33%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.69
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $104.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.52 to $103.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.07 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.07 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$97.52 -
$103.62
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($115.07)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.0% growth with 2.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.52 -
$103.62
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.67
Resistance Level
$105.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.88
Wall Street Target
$115.07
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-13.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 11.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.65
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$114.09
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$119.79
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$103.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -10.7%)
$130.65
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$75.44
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$64.12
(-38%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tucker H Marshall
SELL
11139 shares
2025-09-30
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SJM is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
