SMBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBC - Southern Missouri Bancorp
$68.19
-1.58 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
+3.85%
30d:
+7.98%
90d:
+12.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMBC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SMBC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.46
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBC is currently trading at $68.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.86 to $67.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.86 -
$67.77
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($69.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.86 -
$67.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.49
Resistance Level
$70.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$69.67
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
36.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.80
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$69.42
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$70.05
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$67.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 8.0%)
$173.45
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$85.91
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$73.02
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.78
Bull Case
$88.70
(+30%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$80.63
(+18%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$47.44
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 8:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles R Love
SELL
580 shares
2026-03-04
William E Young
SELL
1500 shares
2025-11-20
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