SMBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBK - SmartFinancial, Inc.
$40.05
-0.83 (-2.03%)
▼
5d:
-5.27%
30d:
-3.17%
90d:
-3.42%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.98
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.59
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBK is currently trading at $40.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.94 to $42.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.15 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.15 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.94 -
$42.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
35th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMBK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 35th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.15)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.94 -
$42.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.12
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.91
Resistance Level
$43.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$46.15
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.05
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$38.07
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$37.12
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$40.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$138.93
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$60.03
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$51.02
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$59.35
(+48%)
Analyst growth 34.6%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$53.95
(+35%)
Market implied 34.6%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$27.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$43.26
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rhett D Jordan
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-24
Wesley Miller Welborn
BUY
835 shares
2026-02-09
Kelli D Shomaker
BUY
255 shares
2026-01-27
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Advanced SMBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMBK price and gamma walls.
