Is SMCI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SMCI is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: SMCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of SMCI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SMCI to be between $29.41 and $31.54. The current price is $29.11.

What is the analyst price target for SMCI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SMCI is $46.71. This implies a potential upside of 55.1% from current levels.

SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock

ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS

$29.11

-1.01 (-3.35%) ▼

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SMCI Gains

Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 24, 2026 24d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMCI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$63.10

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$39.18

25.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $29.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.41 to $31.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.71 (+55.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $29.41 - $31.54

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
BULLISH: Trading 55.1% below Wall St target ($46.71)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.2% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $29.41 - $31.54

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.14

Resistance Level $33.64

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.13

Wall Street Target $46.71 (+55.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -15.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -61.6%

Profit Margin 3.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.1 vs 10.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $29.37 (-3%)

2-Year Target $28.63 (-5%)

3-Year Target $27.92 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→11) $30.03 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 46.6%) $208.70 (+593%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 46.6%) $94.82 (+215%)

Bear: (PE: 8.6, Growth: 46.6%) $80.60 (+168%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27

Bull Case $68.64 (+128%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0

Base Case $62.40 (+107%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.6

Bear Case $21.22 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.9

Stabilization Target: $32.40 (+7.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.6%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

David E Weigand SELL 25000 shares 2025-09-15

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. BUY 2025-09-05

David E Weigand SELL 25000 shares 2025-09-03

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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.

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