STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$799.58
-17.77 (-2.17%)
▼
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
+53.88%
90d:
+85.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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7 traders called STX this week
88% bullish • 1 bearish
88% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: STX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1207.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$749.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $799.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $507.41 to $751.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.1) compared to its historical average (23.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $663.30, while resistance sits at $841.31.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $663.30, while resistance sits at $841.31.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$507.41 -
$751.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
STX is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($794.95)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.7% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$507.41 -
$751.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$663.30
Resistance Level
$841.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.11
Wall Street Target
$794.95
(-2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.3%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.7% premium
PE vs Historical
31.1 vs 23.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$896.63
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$983.61
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$1079.02
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$818.55
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.1, Growth: 76.5%)
$2758.56
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 76.5%)
$1954.32
(+139%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 76.5%)
$1661.18
(+103%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $25.58
Bull Case
$986.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$817.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$625.27
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-04-01
William D Mosley
SELL
24584 shares
2026-03-19
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-02
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