SMFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMFG - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc American Depositary Shares (each representing 3/5th of a share of common stock)
$20.99
-0.30 (-1.41%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.99
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMFG is currently trading at $20.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.63 to $21.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.47 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.47 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$19.63 -
$21.02
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.47)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.63 -
$21.02
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.44
Resistance Level
$21.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.87
Wall Street Target
$23.47
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.48
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$21.67
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$21.87
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.5%)
$51.12
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$29.50
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$25.07
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$27.04
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$24.58
(+17%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$14.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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