SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$64.22
-1.20 (-1.83%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.04
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $64.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.83 to $63.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.83 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $66.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.83 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$58.83 -
$63.48
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($72.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.83 -
$63.48
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.08
Resistance Level
$66.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.25
Wall Street Target
$72.83
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$66.21
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$66.60
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$166.16
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$98.74
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 14.7%)
$83.93
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.47
Bull Case
$138.07
(+115%)
Analyst growth 99.9%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$125.52
(+96%)
Market implied 99.9%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$42.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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56633 shares
2025-09-05
Mark J Scheiwer
BUY
1790 shares
2025-09-03
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