SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$14.16
-0.04 (-0.28%)
▼
5d:
-2.07%
30d:
-13.55%
90d:
-29.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 09, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMPL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMPL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.15
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.24
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $14.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.17 to $16.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.62, while resistance sits at $14.71.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.20 (+92.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.62, while resistance sits at $14.71.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.20 (+92.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.17 -
$16.36
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 92.1% below Wall St target ($27.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.17 -
$16.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.62
Resistance Level
$14.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.60
Wall Street Target
$27.20
(+92.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 8.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.03
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$11.99
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$11.03
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$14.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$60.29
(+326%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$19.34
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$16.44
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case
$31.09
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$28.26
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$9.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.24
(+28.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-03
Michael L Clawson
BUY
5000 shares
2025-11-17
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