SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$18.77
0.02 (0.11%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.10
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.93
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $18.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.30 to $20.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+51.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+51.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$19.30 -
$20.91
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMPL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.8% below Wall St target ($28.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.30 -
$20.91
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.49
Resistance Level
$21.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.54
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+51.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.94
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$17.15
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$16.40
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$18.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$70.08
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 12.7%)
$26.84
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$22.81
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case
$42.31
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$38.46
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$13.08
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$21.54
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMPL price and gamma walls.
