SMTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$76.89
6.28 (8.89%)
▲
5d:
-1.36%
30d:
-20.16%
90d:
+1.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 18, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
SMTC is down 7.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $70 2026-05-15 with 1,236 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $76.89, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.37 to $90.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.2) is in line with its historical norms (38.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.16, while resistance sits at $81.74. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.62 (+36.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.16, while resistance sits at $81.74. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.62 (+36.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$76.37 -
$90.09
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.1% below Wall St target ($104.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$76.37 -
$90.09
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.16
Resistance Level
$81.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.20
Wall Street Target
$104.62
(+36.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.7%
Profit Margin
-3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.2 vs 38.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.43
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$72.05
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$69.74
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→39)
$76.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.2, Growth: 28.9%)
$164.68
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.9%)
$104.57
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 28.9%)
$88.89
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 33.56 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.19
Bull Case
$88.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$73.60
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$56.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.2 to 38.8
Stabilization Target:
$84.76
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark Lin
SELL
3908 shares
2026-03-11
Mark Lin
SELL
2734 shares
2026-03-10
Mark Lin
SELL
6582 shares
2026-03-06
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
