SMTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$79.75
-2.23 (-2.72%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.73
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $79.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.71 to $79.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.7) is in line with its historical norms (38.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.29, while resistance sits at $85.44.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.29, while resistance sits at $85.44.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$74.71 -
$79.89
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$74.71 -
$79.89
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.29
Resistance Level
$85.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.70
Wall Street Target
$83.43
(+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.7%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.7 vs 38.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.16
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$80.35
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$79.55
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→39)
$82.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.7, Growth: 28.3%)
$173.03
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.3%)
$102.35
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 28.3%)
$87.00
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 36.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.19
Bull Case
$96.30
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.3
Base Case
$79.75
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.5
Bear Case
$61.01
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.7 to 38.9
Stabilization Target:
$84.59
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2025-10-22
Mark Lin
SELL
971 shares
2025-10-03
Martin Burvill
SELL
3500 shares
2025-09-16
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
