SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$20.15
0.14 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
+2.73%
30d:
+6.76%
90d:
-0.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.51
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $20.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.14 to $19.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $17.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.14 -
$19.95
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.0% above Wall St target ($17.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with -6.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.14 -
$19.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.79
Resistance Level
$20.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.81
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.70
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$21.42
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$22.17
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.10
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -3.1%)
$37.10
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -3.1%)
$18.17
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -3.1%)
$15.45
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$20.97
(+5%)
Analyst growth -5.6%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$19.07
(-5%)
Market implied -5.6%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$13.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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