SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.51
0.11 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+0.63%
30d:
-9.18%
90d:
-12.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.36
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.51, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.18 to $19.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.18 -
$19.31
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.18 -
$19.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.00
Resistance Level
$20.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.89
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.51
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$16.03
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.4%)
$38.64
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -3.4%)
$15.77
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: -3.4%)
$13.40
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$19.24
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$17.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$11.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.11
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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